Submitted to: Acta Horticulture Proceedings
Publication Type: Proceedings
Publication Acceptance Date: March 1, 2005
Publication Date: February 1, 2006
Citation: Dewdney, M., Bigg, A., Turechek, W. 2006. A statistical comparison of maryblyt(trademark) and cougarblight with sensitivity analysis. Acta Horticulture Proceedings. 704:171-176.
MARYBLYT trademark and Cougarblight are fire blight forecasters used to identify blossom infection periods for Erwinia amylovora on apple (Malus xdomestica) and pear (Pyrus communis). MARYBLYT uses flowering, an index of bacterial population (EIP), a measurement of wetting, and average daily temperature, whereas Cougarblight uses flowering, wetting, a 4-day temperature window, and orchard fire blight history as parameters for predicting blossom infection. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate both models for their ability to predict fire blight using historical weather and disease incidence data collected from several regions. The results showed that the two forecasters performed similarly in their ability to predict blossom blight. However, regional differences in predictive ability were evident, with best performance of both forecasters occurring in England. Further analysis is needed to determine the reasons for the regional differences.